Cable operators considering the deployment of high-speed data services find that they need to consider a complex set of decision factors, including

Markets and Opportunities: Target markets, applications (now and future), content, customer needs and expectations, willingness to pay, competition

Technology: Capabilities and costs over time, standards, lifetime costs, evaluation of technology choices to target markets and applications, technology trials, end-to-end system architecture and component selection

Business Decisions: Core competencies, partners and alliances, revenues by market and application, capital and operating costs, cash flow and profit

Implementation Planning: Vendor selection, scope and timing of market research, market trials, operating procedures, staffing, plant preparation and acceptance testing

Cable modems are only a small part of a complete cable data system. Broadband-enabled interactive applications require a complete end-to-end system composed of many elements – assembled either by the cable operator or by suitable partners and vendors.

The major elements required in a complete system are shown in the following diagram:

System Dynamics is advising a cable operator in planning and implementing high-speed data delivery over one of the nation’s largest cable systems. Participating as members of their team, we are providing comprehensive assistance – first in initiating a pilot test, and subsequently in preparing for a full-scale launch in conjunction with a system rebuild. Tasks have included target market and application selection, market research, end-to-end system definition, technology and vendor selection, business case preparation, competitive analysis, and project planning and tracking. More about this engagement.

For a prospective cable modem vendor, we created an economic model of a cable operator offering data services. We projected revenues from business and residential services, and associated start-up and operating costs. Our client successfully entered the cable modem business, using our analyses as a marketing tool.

For a major information-technology company, we assessed the highest potential opportunities in the cable industry. We developed a model to project market growth, application adoption rates, and technology costs over time; and developed recommendations on target market segments and applications.

To assist in resource allocation decisions for top management of a major computer company, we assessed market readiness of telephone companies and cable operators for deployment of high-bandwidth interactive services.

For a major computer company, we analyzed the technology value chain for high-speed data over cable and the positioning of existing and potential partners and competitors. We recommended changes in partnering roles and relationships.

For the XIWT residential broadband project, we analyzed the converging impact of recent ITU multimedia standards based on H.320, new Internet standards, and the deployment of cable modems and DSL technologies.

We presented a half-day session on "New Internet and Data Services for the Cable Industry" for the staff and member companies of CableLabs. The session focused on revenue opportunities from the Small Office/Home Office/Telecommuter (SOHOT) market and from multimedia communications based on the recent ITU H.323 recommendation, and their implications for emerging cable modem standards.

At a workshop preceding Cable 96, we made a presentation on "High-Potential Data Services" to an audience of cable operators. Our presentation focused on opportunities for developing profitable services, and was featured in an article in CableWorld.

Other recent presentations.

As Executive Director of Technology, Dave Waks led Prodigy’s efforts to focus the cable industry on the PC platform for broadband interactive services.

• Beginning in 1986, set up a cable infrastructure in Prodigy's laboratory to explore the interaction of cable modem technologies with online services. Installed and tested each cable modem technology as it came to market.
• Starting with Cox in 1993, initiated and organized five trials of Prodigy over cable - the first customer trials of broadband-enable interactive services.
• External point person in all Prodigy discussions with cable technology suppliers and operators
• At CableNet 94, demonstrated combination of server-based streaming video with online services delivered over cable.
• Delivered many invited presentations at National and Western Cable Shows.

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